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If familiarity breeds contempt, than this has the making of a special American League pennant series. Start with the fact these are division partners, hard to call them rivals until this year with the history of the two clubs. In the first 13 games between these teams, the home team won every time. Tampa Bay finally broke the string on Sept. 9 in Boston and won the next day also, winning a series in Beantown for the first time in their existence (1-23-2). Later in the month, the Red Sox won for the first time in Tampa and many believed this is where they would roll past the Rays and win the division, instead Joe Maddon’s young team stood up and won the next two games, effectively holding serve and later captured the AL East crown.

Having seen how well Tampa Bay played all year, it’s easy to forget how incredibly bad this franchise has been since its inception, thus a little history lesson. Until this year, Tampa Bay had never been above .500; in fact they had never won 71 games in a season. Just two seasons ago, the Rays tied the major league record (Philadelphia Athletics 1943) for fewest road wins after July 1, winning three times in last 39 games played. On top of that, they led the major leagues in the number of leads blown with 94 and set a new American League record by losing 60 games that they had led. The Rays led in 121 games, but won only 61. Based on its putrid past and playing in baseball’s toughest division, Tampa had about as much chance of winning the AL East as the world’s fattest man getting married (he is).

The Boston Red Sox are the best example of what a well run organization looks like in baseball today. The Boston Red Sox were New England’s version of the Chicago Cubs for decades. The “Sox” had several close calls over the years to be World Series champions, but in the end, always came up short. That was until 2004, with a new ownership group in place, Red Sox management took what appeared to be huge risk in hiring 28-year old Theo Epstein to be their general manager the prior year. Epstein and the rest of the franchise put a plan together to play a certain style of baseball and trade away players that didn’t fit or trade for those that did. The farm system was immediately revamped to reflect this culture and in short, this has worked to near perfection with two World Series titles in four years.

These two teams had a pretty good baseball fight in June, by the sports standards and bad blood was spilled at least verbally by both teams. Daisuke Matsuzaka (18-3, 2.97) will pitch Game 1 in Tampa, mostly because how well he has pitched on the road with 9-0 record and Boston winning 11 of his 13 starts. Josh Beckett (14-12, 4-12) will follow, with Red Sox manager Terry Francona saying Beckett is healthy and was just rusty against Los Angeles. Back home, baseball’s best postseason starting pitcher of late Jon Lester (17-6, 3.01) will go and Tim Wakefield (10-11, 4.13) will start Game 4.

Manager Maddon will go with the rotation he had for the ALDS, with James Shields (15-8, 3.58) leading off at Tropicana Field, where he and Rays are 15-3 this year. Left-hander Scott Kazmir (13-8, 3.48) is next being their most experienced member on the staff. When they travel to Boston, Matt Garza (11-10 3.82) will start Game 3 despite being 4-7 on the road. Andy Sonnanstine (14-9, 4.34) will complete the initial go-round.

StatFox Take: Because Boston is so patient at the plate, their approach can be demoralizing to competitors, ask the Angels about the number of two strike hits and two out runs the Red Sox scored in the ALDS. Because Tampa Bay pitchers don’t have overpowering stuff other than Kazmir, Boston will have their chances if they continue same approach. Tampa Bay actually is similar to the Red Sox in how they work at the plate, with a high walk total. The Rays hit more home runs and can make things happen on the base paths with 142 steals this year.

The Red Sox are tough, intelligent team that understands how to win. Their starting pitching beyond Matsuzaka and Lester is a question mark coming into this series. Will Tampa Bay’s youth catch up to them? This team is no fluke and with a couple of guys hitting home runs like B.J. Upton or Evan Longoria, anything becomes possible. Tampa Bay won the season series 10-8, however the “been there, done that” approach of Boston wins out in a long series.

Series odds from Bookmaker.com: Boston -133, Tampa Bay +113

Saturday October 11
Boston (Beckett) at Tampa Bay (Kazmir) 8:07 EDT

Monday October 13
Tampa Bay (Garza) at Boston (Lester) 4:37 EDT

Tuesday October 14
Tampa Bay (Sonnanstine) at Boston (Wakefield) 8:37 EDT

Thursday October 16
Tampa Bay at Boston if necessary

Saturday October 18
Boston at Tampa Bay if necessary

Sunday October 19
Boston at Tampa Bay if necessary

Offensive – American League
Runs scored    Boston 2nd   Tampa Bay 9th
Home Runs     Boston 6th    Tampa Bay 5th
Total Bases     Boston 4th    Tampa Bay 8th
Slugging Ptc.   Boston 3rd    Tampa Bay8th
Walks              Boston 7th    Tampa Bay 2nd
On base Ptc.    Boston 1st    Tampa Bay 5th

Pitching & Defense
ERA                Boston 4th    Tampa Bay 2nd
Strikeouts        Boston 1st     Tampa Bay 3rd
Walks              Boston 6th    Tampa Bay 8th
On base Ptc.    Boston 4th    Tampa Bay 2nd
Putouts            Boston 5th     Tampa Bay 1st
Errors              Boston 3rd    Tampa Bay 4th     

National League Series Betting Preview

Postseason baseball has changed dramatically over the last several years. In the past, normally the best team in each league would advance to the World Series and the favored team would win more often than not or the occasional upset would occur. Presently, those days are more gone than the thought of one’s house increasing in value. In today’s modern playoff baseball it’s similar to most people’s outlook on life, “What have you done for me lately?”

The Los Angeles Dodgers took a calculated risk in trading for Manny Ramirez, hoping the talented, yet eccentric player could ignite a clubhouse that was as exciting as trip through a McDonald’s drive-thru. Ramirez proved to the lightning rod, showing his teammates how to be a professional baseball player in terms of preparation, yet having fun and being just wacky enough he could fit right in at Venice Beach. The Dodgers so outplayed the Cubs, you would have thought they won 97 games during the regular season and are since September 6, are 22-8.

While the Chicago Cubs have spent a century not being a very good baseball team, the Philadelphia Phillies have not exactly been stuffing their trophy case with championship hardware. Since first becoming a big league franchise in 1883 (Chester Arthur was President) the Phillies went 97 years before being World Series champions in 1980 and the newest streak is up to a mere 27 years. Philadelphia was barely given credit for winning the NL East a year ago, winning it on the last day of the regular season thanks to the New York Mets collapse and being swept quickly in three games by Colorado. This season the Phillies had many peaks and valleys, yet at crunch time, they were tough. With the series win over Milwaukee, the Phils are on 16-4 run-out.

To win this series, Los Angeles needs to play to its tactical edges. With Rafael Furcal and Russell Martin on-base at the top of the lineup, Manny Ramirez creates fear as a RBI-machine. When Manny either gets a hit or is semi-intentionally walked, this gives James Loney and Andre Ethier a chance to finish off a big inning. The Dodgers bullpen has been as steady as Amy Winehouse, but reliever Jonathan Broxton as been anchor of late. After Cole Hamels, the Dodgers have the next three starters in the NLCS with starters Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley and Hiroki Kuroda.

Having won 16 of 20, the Philadelphia offense receives a great deal of credit. The real secret to this winning stretch has been the pitching. In their last 20 games, the Phillies have allowed more than four runs just three times, keeping them in games the offense can win. Having home field advantage in the series, the Phils must show patience at the dish. The Dodgers and Philly bullpens have similar ERA’s at 3.34 and 3.21 respectively; however the Dodgers are nearly a full run higher on the road. Chase Utley and his teammates need to go deep into counts, piling up Dodgers pitch counts and takes hacks the L.A. bullpen.

StatFox Take – If good pitching stops good hitting, than the edge has to go to the Dodgers. Joe Torre can run out three starters all capable of winning each game and a case can be made in Lowe’s favor in the opener, being 40-20 vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs a game on the season. (Team’s Record) It’s difficult to gauge Dodgers mediocre road record on the season, as this is a different team. In order to win the series, Philadelphia is going to need two wins on the days Brett Myers and Jamie Moyer pitch and not sure that will happen. Home field has meant everything between these two teams, each sweeping a four game series this season. Slight edge to the Dodgers to advance.

Series odds from Sportbook.com: Dodgers -110, Phillies -110

Thursday October 9
L.A. Dodgers (Lowe) at Philadelphia (Hamels) 8:22 EDT

Friday October 10
L.A. Dodgers (Billingsley) at Philadelphia (Myers) 4:35 EDT

Saturday October 12
Philadelphia (Moyer) at L.A. Dodgers (Kuroda) 8:22 EDT

Sunday October 13
Philadelphia () at L.A. Dodgers () 8:22 EDT

Tuesday October 15
Philadelphia at L.A. Dodgers if necessary

Thursday October 17
L.A. Dodgers at Philadelphia if necessary

Friday October 18
L.A. Dodgers at Philadelphia if necessary

Offensive – National League
Runs scored    Dodgers 13th    Philadelphia 3rd
Home Runs     Dodgers 13th    Philadelphia 1st
Total Bases     Dodgers 13th    Philadelphia 3rd
Slugging Ptc.   Dodgers 13th    Philadelphia 2nd
Walks             Dodgers 11th    Philadelphia 5th
On base Ptc.   Dodgers 6th      Philadelphia 7th 

Pitching & Defense
ERA                 Dodgers 1st     Philadelphia 4th
Strikeouts         Dodgers 5th     Philadelphia 11th
Walks               Dodgers 2nd    Philadelphia 6th
On base Ptc.     Dodgers 1st     Philadelphia 6th
Putouts             Dodgers 9th     Philadelphia 7th
Errors               Dodgers 10th   Philadelphia 5th     

2. Include any non-placed run if it was within two lengths of the winner.

3. Last run must be on a metropolitan track unless it is a city standard horse. This little method will give you plenty of horses to check out and regularly comes up with some good winners.

Remember occasionally taking odds on about a horse is like putting your head in a hot oven. Regularly taking odds on is like putting your head in a hot oven and closing the door!

Always check and see what odds the TAB and bookies are offering and take the one, which will provide the best return.

Horses that are true odds on's chances are generally very short in the betting ring, often odds on. You are very lucky if you can get better than 6/4. Of course there are also plenty of true 2/1 and 3/1 chances or even worse that are offered at 6/4 in the betting ring. Bettors generally take the short odds because they feel comfortable knowing plenty of money has gone on the horse. If they lose, many other bettors lose along with them. That is also why many media tipsters like tipping the short priced favorites. They know there is no value backing most of these horses, but because they accept that their tips are going to lose overall they want the comfort of being incorrect in the same way as most other judges.

ITEMS TO CONSIDER WHEN WAGERING ON A HORSE

Here are some simple tactics which may be helpful to a new bettor:

Fitness

Before a horse can be considered, it should be determined that he's physically fit enough to be at or near his best. Athletes become fit via two avenues, competition and training. Examine the dates of prior last races, found at the far left of the past performance line. The more recent races he has, the more certain of his fitness.

If he's been away from the races for two months or more, examine morning training workouts shown underneath the last past performance line. It is generally understood that fitness is best derived by a combination of competition and training. The longer the layoff, the more difficult the comeback. Make a final determination and if deemed fit, go to the next variable. If not, eliminate.

Class

Class in Thoroughbred racing can be defined by saying that class is the quality of competition a horse can compete favorably against. Look at the prior conditions under which the horse has raced. Regardless of any other variable, a horse cannot be expected to win without having shown a past ability to do so against similar competition. If he has not shown the past ability, he can be considered a throw-out, unless he's rapidly improving and won his last race with enough authority to move up in class against tougher competition. If he's fit and can compete against the competition, move to the next variable.

Distance

Through either breeding, conformation, running style, or training techniques, horses generally do better at certain distances. Few are versatile enough to handle short and long races effectively. Examine all races listed to determine if he's done well at the designated distance. If he's a proven competitor at today's distance, continue to consider him, and eliminate him if he's had numerous opportunities without success. He may show a potential to handle the distance, but can't be overly well regarded without proof. Remember, never expect a horse to do something he's never done before.

Post Position

The Post Position Draw, a random drawing done after entries for a race are taken, can often turn a potential winner into a dead loser, and vice-versa! Track biases exist at many tracks, favoring inside or outside post positions. Check post position statistics listed in programs or Lone Star Today to see if certain posts appear better than others. As a general rule, far outside posts in bulky fields in sprints (10 or more) can prove more challenging. The two inside posts in big fields can also be detrimental. Early speed is preferable for both inside and outside posts because without it, outside horses lose ground and inside ones get trapped. A horse's running style and the post position are directly correlated. In longer, two-turn-races, inside posts are almost always preferred. The shorter the two-turn race, the more it favors inside. If it can be determined that the post will not be a detriment, move on. But a horse can be thrown out if it is determined his chances will be badly compromised by post position.
 

Running Style

Horses generally settle into a certain style of running, broken down into three categories: pace-setter or front runner, horses who run in the lead or who are never further back than two lengths; stalker, horses who are never further back from the lead than 4 lengths; and closer or rally types, horses who are never closer than five lengths from the pace. Horses have been known to change styles, but the vast majority have consistent styles. True front runners always try for the lead when possible. Front runners are most effective when unchallenged early. The easier they are able to get a clear lead, the better the chances. Prefer front runners when there are few, if any, potential challengers or if a pronounced track bias favoring early speed exists. Otherwise, look more favorably upon those that can stalk or rally.

A stalker rarely makes the lead, and seldom possesses a big late kick. They have the speed to stay close and pass tiring front runners, and can hold off the big closers that lag well behind. Stalkers can make the lead if no front runners are in the race. Prefer stalkers when numerous front runners are present, and without the presence of a strong and fit rally or closer horse.

Rally or closers are best when an abundance of early speed exists and are often victimized when a front runner is loose on the lead. Playing rally or closers is more precarious than horses with speed as they can run into traffic problems. And, statistics show that horses closer to the lead win the majority of races. However, under certain circumstances, closers are a very positive choice.

Trainer

Give careful consideration to the trainer, who is like the coach. Everyone knows that some coaches are superior to others and there can be a large discrepancy be-tween the best and the worst. Trainers have a big job and must have a wealth of knowledge about a large number of facets of training a horse to race. They must not only be good horsemen, they must have excellent organizational skills in order to coordinate the efforts of an entire stable. Statistics point out the top trainers at the track and a handicapper that pays attention to the trainers of every horse in every race will soon have a good working knowledge of which ones are acceptable when making a final decision. If the trainer meets the handicapper's standards, he can move on to the next variable. But an elimination can be made if you feel the competence of the conditioner is in question.

Jockey

The role of the jockey is often understated. Checking out statistics at most tracks, a small percentage of riders win the great majority of the races. It takes a great deal of skill to ride a horse in a race. To suggest that all riders are equally proficient is ludicrous. Jockeys must possess good riding techniques, have strength, intelligence, good judgment and timing and have an ability to communicate with the horse. Some jockeys are far more proficient than others, and by perusing the statistics or by simply watching them day in and day out, one can learn which are the most reliable. When making a final decision, be sure the horse you select has an acceptable rider. When eliminating horses in fields with numerous contenders, you may be able to eliminate a horse because of the rider alone.

Present Form

When making a final selection it's important to determine that the horse is in good present form. Examining the finishes of his most recent races tells you if he's racing well and competitively. Statistics prove that horses that have recently won or have been reasonably close, win the majority of races. Most horses have form cycles in that they run well for a period of time, then tail off. Initially select horses that appear to be in form or rounding to form, and be wary of ones that have raced well, but show signs of tailing off. Sometimes horses that have not been close to winning of late are dropped in class and can still be considered viable choices, but the handicapper should expect that the horse in question at least showed some interest against better competition. Be careful not to give too much consideration to horses that are dropping down after showing no life at all as they may have lost their will to compete. After all, any horse can be last in a race. When making a final decision, it's a wise practice to play horses with good present form and eliminate those that are obviously off form.

Consistency

Before considering a horse a top contender, examine his record for the year and his lifetime record. A handicapper should look for horses that are more likely to run well than not. If they have finished in the money 50% of the time, they can be deemed consistent. Many horses with poor consistency records cannot be heavily relied upon to run well after a good effort the time before. So, despite a good recent race, they have shown a past tendency not to repeat strong performances. A horse coming off a good race returning in a similar situation is hard to disregard. But if he's shown a lack of past consistency, his lack of reliability would make it difficult to make a serious wager on him. A handicapper should demand consistency before making a horse a serious contender.

Weight

Some handicappers use the weight carried by a horse as a critical factor. This is a controversial variable among astute handicappers. A truism is that weight will stop a freight train. However, determining how a few pounds, more or less, will affect a horse's performance isn't easy to assess. Race horses can weigh well over 1,000 pounds. So humans, who generally weigh about 80% less, would find it hard to understand how 10 pounds affects a horse in comparison to a much less sturdy and strong human. Proportionately speaking, one could assume that ten pounds to a human, which is significant, may feel like only two pounds to a horse. Obviously, two pounds is hardly enough to slow him down much.

If you decide to use weight as a handicapping variable, it would seem wise to consider it more important as the length of the race increases. It may also be prudent not to consider weight a factor unless it involves at least a difference of five pounds or more. You may also want to use weight if comparing horses in the same race if there is a significant switch in weights, like one horse taking off five pounds coming out of a race against a rival who may be adding five pounds. Generally, weight may play a lesser role than many have believed and without knowing each horse's capacity to carry weight, it may be impossible to use effectively. Nonetheless, for those who have found success using this variable, it may have a place in making a final decision.

Speed Figures

Various speed figures (Beyers, etc.) have been compiled in recent years. These figures basically assign a number to each race run by a horse. Beyer numbers, for instance, are based almost exclusively by running times in conjunction with track conditions. Speed sheets, put out by Ragozin and others, also use difficulty of trip to determine the figure. Some arbitrary judgment made by the representative for each track also figures into the final number.

The number certainly reduces a horse's past performance to just digits and can be used to quickly identify the contenders. However, as speed figure producers suggest, the handicapper is implored to use other handicapping techniques to be used in conjunction with the number.

The numbers, if used, should be used more as a guide. Although at times, a horse with an apparently large advantage may be a play on the number alone. But, obviously no guarantee exists. Generally speaking, use speed figures as one of the many available handicapping tools.
 

Football Wagering Tips (General)

• The gambler's goal should be to grind out a profit over the course of the season while enjoying watching Football. Football gambling should never be viewed in terms of "Getting Rich Quick."
• Successful football gambling requires hard work & homework. Make gambling decisions based on team emotion & situation, current angles & relevant trends, and talent & coaching.
• Be smarter than the public. If 90% of the public says one team is a lock this week, the other team is probably the side to PLAY (especially in Pro Football). The average gambler cannot beat the sports book. If they could, there would be no sportsbooks.
• Don't bet with your heart and your emotions.
• Start with a bankroll that you are comfortable with. Set an amount that, if you lose some or all, it will not affect your standard of living.
• Set a dollar amount to a per unit amount, for example: 1 unit = $100.00. Never bet over 4-6% of your bankroll on a single wager.
• Do not increase wagers during losing streaks, and do not be conservative during winning streaks.

Establish a line of your own on every college and pro game that you feel comfortable with. Then compare to the posted gambling line at one of the best sportsbooks like BetUS, open an account with them via Credit Card or Western Union. Throw out any emotional games. Then study the ones that are significantly different from the posted odds - these have the best chance of being your winners.

Tips on Picking NFL Winners

I. Early NFL Picks
As early in the week as possible, make a list of the coming games and make your selections. Go with your best guess, gut feeling, or whatever. Skip the games about which you are unsure. In making NFL picks, whether you are an expert or someone who just likes to watch a game now and then, your first decision is often best.

II. The Questionable Games
Go back and mark those NFL picks you are not sure about with a question mark. With fewer decisions remaining, the focus on these games is increased.

III. Daily Review
Tuck your list into a convenient pocket and carry it with you. Look it over several times a day. A minute or two twice a day is far more helpful than an hour of study.

IV. Be an Information Junkie
Read newspapers. If you come to know a given sports writer, you will be able to pick up on the difference between his facts and opinions, and on any bias present. And some publish their NFL picks. There are some shows on TV that may help. Your best bet may be the web. Sites such as CNN, CBS, and Nando.Net are very informative. What others have to say is particularly helpful in thinking about teams you do not follow or do not know much about.

V. Argue to Increase Your Focus
Get into it about your undecided picks with a friend, or anyone interested. Or argue with yourself! "The Bears will stomp Detroit." "No they won't. Here's why." "How come I can't make a simple decision like this?" While this may seem an odd or novel idea, it is a real winner. It dramatically increases the focus on the undecided games. And the greater the focus, the more likely your final pick will be the right one.

VI. Watch Gambling Line Moves
If it drops, then heavy bucks have been placed on the underdog. If it goes up, those bucks are going to the favorite. While public opinion may mean little in many cases, this part of the public is backing their opinion with dollars. If in doubt, you may want to go along.

VII. Make Early Decisions
Make decisions as early as possible. Every undecided you cross off the list leaves one less pick to think about and increases the focus on those remaining. As the list gets shorter, you can run down it mentally without even looking at it.

VIII. Avoid Changing Your Picks
Be hesitant to change any decision already made; more often than not it will be a loser. This seems particularly true in making NFL picks.

IX. Bet on Virtual Bookmaker
At the time to place your bets, choose a sportsbook sponsored by a great client service, promotions and the most important, the experience to offer fast payouts. Sign up on BetUS, by open an account with them via Neteller, Credit Card or Western Union.

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