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Handicapping (NCAA CBB) March Madness Basketball 2010 Tips

Final Four And Championship Game Tourney Trends

It’s onward to Indianapolis for the Final Four games. Listed below are some interesting trends and angles to consider before our Fab Four takes a final spin in Circle City this weekend. All results listed below are ATS (Against The Spread) since 1991 unless noted otherwise.

Final Four round notes

• One-seeds who are 4-0 ATS in the tourney are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS on the last weekend (Duke)

• Two-seeds are 1-7 ATS off a double-digit ATS win (West Virginia)

• Teams off back to back outright dog wins are 2-8 ATS (Butler)

• ACC teams are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS since 2002 (Duke)

• Big East teams are 0-3 ATS since 2004 (West Virginia)

• Teams with the greater win percentage are 8-2 ATS last five years (Butler and Duke)

• Returnees from last year in this round are 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS (Michigan State)

Championship notes

• One-seed faves are 6-1 ATS

• Two-seeds are 0-5 ATS off an ATS win

• Five or worse seeds are 0-3 SU & ATS

• Favorites of 5 points or less are 10-1 ATS

• Favorites who scored 80 or more points in the Final Four round are 4-1 ATS

• Teams with a win percentage of .810 or less are 0-4 SU & ATS

• Teams off five straight tourney ATS wins are 4-1 ATS

• Teams that have scored the most points in the tourney are 14-5 SU and 12-7 ATS

• Underdogs of 3 points or more off a SU dog win are 1-5 ATS

• Big East teams are 3-0 ATS

• ACC teams are 9-2 ATS

• Big Ten teams are 1-6 ATS

Coach me up

• Butler’s Brad Stevens: 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS as an NCAA tourney favorite… 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS versus Big Ten opponents… 41-2 SU at home, including 3-0 SU and 2-0-1 ATS versus Big Ten opponents.

• Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski: 39-4 SU versus .750 or less opponents and 14-11 SU versus greater than .750 foes, including 7-12-1 ATS as a favorite in this tourney… 5-1 SU and 4-2 in Final Four games and 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in NCAA championship games.

• Michigan State’s Tom Izzo: 10-0 SU and 6-4 ATS versus Horizon League competition… 21-5 ATS versus opponent off SU and ATS win in this tourney… 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS in Final Four and 1-1 SU and ATS in championship games in this event.

• West Virginia’s Bob Huggins: 9-7 SU and ATS versus ACC opposition, including 3-1 SU and ATS in this tourney… 1-5 ATS as a dog in this tourney… 18-3 SU and 15-5-1 ATS versus .718 or less opponents –but- 8-13 SU and 6-15 ATS versus .724 or greater foes in this tourney.

There you have it, trends and notes of teams and coaches for the NCAA Final Four and out games played in the last 20 years.

Sweet 16 and Elite Eight Betting Trends

Sweet 16 Trends:

• One-seed faves of less than 11 points off back to back ATS wins are 10-2 ATS

• Two-seeds are 12-5 ATS vs. opponents off a SU dog win

• Four-seed dogs are 2-8 ATS vs. foes off back to back ATS wins

• Five-seeds are 1-4 ATS vs. foes off back to back ATS wins

• Six-seeds off a double digit straight up win are 2-6 ATS

• Nine or higher seed dogs greater than two points are 3-10 ATS

• Favorites off a straight up win of 30 points or more are 4-0 ATS

• Favorites off back to back straight up wins of 15 points or more are 10-2 ATS

• Underdogs who scored less than 65 points last game are 7-3 ATS

• Underdogs off back to back dog wins are 2-9 ATS

• Underdogs who scored less than 85 points last game are 2-7 ATS

Best Team SU & ATS records in this round

Xavier: 3-0 ATS, Michigan St: 5-1 SU & ATS, Kentucky: 10-2 SU / 9-3 ATS, West Virginia: 3-1 ATS

Worst Team SU & ATS records in this round

Butler: 0-3 SU / 1-2 ATS, Tennessee: 0-3 SU / 1-2 ATS, Washington: 0-3 SU, Duke: 1-5 SU & ATS, Syracuse: 1-4 SU / 0-4-1 ATS, Purdue: 1-3 SU & ATS.

Best Conference ATS records in this round

Atlantic 10: 6-0, SEC: 8-2 as dogs, Big Ten: 14-5.

Worst Conference ATS records in this round

Big East: 0-5 as faves 7 points or less, Pac 10: 1-6 as dogs, Big 12: 1-5 as faves of less than 10 points, ACC: 3-11 as faves of 8 points or less.

Elite Eight trends

• One-seed faves greater than 7 points are 0-7 ATS vs. foe off back to back ATS wins

• Two-seeds are 2-9-1 ATS off a double-digit ATS win

• Three-seeds are 1-4 ATS

• Four-seeds are 7-1 ATS

• Five-seeds are 4-0 SU and ATS

• Six-seeds are 0-6 SU

• Eight or higher seeds are 6-2-2 ATS

• Teams off back to back ATS losses are 6-2 ATS

• Faves who scored less than 65 points last game are 0-5 ATS

• Dogs off three straight double digit wins are 1-4-1 ATS

• Dogs who scored less than 85 points last game are 1-4 ATS

Coach me if you can

• Jim Boeheim is 1-5-1 ATS in Sweet 16 games, but 6-0 ATS from the Elite Eight out.

• Tom Izzo is 11-3 SU and 9-4-1 ATS in Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games.

• Bob Huggins is 1-9 ATS as an NCAA tourney dog or favorite of less than two points.

NCAA Tournament Trends by Conference

This time of the year is commonly referred to as “March Madness” because of the hysteria caused by the college basketball tournament. For office poolers, bracketologists, and bettors, the most maddening thing can be not being prepared for success. Well, I’m here to take care of one important piece of the preparation, the recent tournament trends, at least where the various conferences are concerned. After all, how can you expect to succeed this year if you don’t at least recognize the recent patterns forming?

Here are a few general trends regarding matchups between various level conferences, followed by specific trends for each conference. Next to each league, I’ve listed the rating at which that StatFox recognizes that conference.

In matchups where an “A” teams is seeded better than a “B”, that “A’ team is 28-17 ATS (62%) since ’05.

“A” vs. “D” matchups have been dominated by the “A” teams, 28-3 SU & 20-8-3 ATS (71%) over the L3 years.

Twelve of the last 14 (86%) matchups between better seeded “B” teams and “A” teams have gone OVER the total.

In matchups between two “B” level teams, the better seeded clubs are 7-1 SU & 7-0-1 ATS (100%).

When “B” conference teams play as better seeds against lesser conference teams, they are just 8-15 ATS (35%) since ’00.

Since ’99, when “B” teams have been favored over “A” teams, OVER the total is 25-13 (66%).

ACC (A)

Over the last three tournaments, North Carolina is 13-2 SU & 12-3 ATS. All other ACC teams are a combined 9-15 SU & 7-16-1 ATS.

As favorites of 5-points or less in the NCAA Tournament, ACC teams have lost their last eight games against the spread (1-7 SU). UNDER the total is 7-1 in those games.

ACC teams are 51-1 SU but 24-26-2 ATS as double-digit favorites in the Big Dance since ’98. UNDER the total is 34-16-2 in such scenarios.

In tournament games between the Big East & ACC, UNDERDOGS are on a run of 9-13 SU but 15-6-1 ATS. The Big East holds the 13-9 SU & 13-8-1 ATS edge.

Atlantic 10 (B)

Xavier is on a 9-5 SU & 12-1-1 ATS run in the NCAA’s. All other Atlantic 10 teams are 5-10 SU & 3-11-1 ATS in that same time span, since ’04.

The last six tournament games between the A-10 and Big East have been covered by underdogs (5-1 SU).

Favorites are on a run of 17-2 SU & 12-5-2 ATS in Atlantic 10 NCAA Tournament games.

Big 12 (A)

The Big 12 has been one of the best conferences in the tournament over the last two years, 23-11 SU & 24-10 ATS, including 19-0 SU & 17-2 ATS as favorites!

Big 12 teams boast an 18-9 SU & 16-11 ATS in the NCAA’s over the last two years.

As favorites in the -7 to -13.5 range, Big 12 teams are on an incredible run of 28-2 SU & 25-5 ATS in the NCAA’s since ’98.

As underdogs of 4.5-points or more, Big 12 teams are 1-21 SU but 14-8 ATS since ’98 in the tournament.

As a pick em’ or small favorite (<=2.5 points) in the L12 NCAA Tournaments, the Big 12 is 17-7 SU & ATS.

In tourney games between the Big East & Big 12 over the last four years, favorites are on a run of 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS, and the over is 7-1-1. In the Big Ten-Big 12 series, the favorites are on a 9-0 SU & ATS run.

Dating back 11 years, the Big 12 boasts an 11-6 SU & 13-4 ATS record vs. the Pac 10 in the NCAA’s.

Big East (A)

Over the last four years, oddsmakers have priced out Big East teams, as they are 46-29 SU but just 32-42-1 ATS in the tournament.

As a favorite of 3-points or less in the tournament, the Big East is just 7-10 SU & 5-12 ATS in its L17 chances.

Once a highly reliable underdog in the NCAA’s, Big East teams are just 5-15 SU & 8-12 ATS as such since ‘06.

Against “C” level conferences in the tournament, the Big East is just 12-7 SU & 4-15 ATS over the last 12 years.

Nine of the last 10 tournament matchups between the Big Ten and Big East have gone UNDER the total. Dogs are 7-3 SU & ATS in those games.

Several significant trends have formed in the tourney series between the Big East & Pac 10 of late. Since ’02, favorites are 13-1 SU & 10-3-1 ATS, while the Big East holds a 10-4 SU & 9-4-1 ATS edge. OVER the total is also 10-3-1.

Big Ten (A)

As underdogs of 5-points or less, Big Ten teams are a solid group to advance in your brackets 25-15 SU & 26-14 ATS.

Big Ten teams are a bankroll-building 35-2 SU & 24-9-4 ATS in the tournament in games when favored by 6.5-points or more over the last decade.

Not typically respected like the other power “A” conferences, Big Ten teams are 15-9 SU & 16-8 ATS in the head-to-head competition of the L3 tournaments.

In tournament games pitting the Big Ten versus Conference USA since ’99, favorites are a perfect 7-0 SU & ATS.

Conversely in NCAA tourney games pitting the Big Ten versus the SEC since ’99, underdogs are a healthy 8-9 SU & 12-5 ATS. The Big Ten leads those games 11-6 SU & ATS.

Conference USA (B)

Conference USA teams other than Memphis are just 7-8 SU & 5-10 ATS in their L15 tournament games.

Favorites dominate Conference USA action in the NCAA Tournament, 33-7 SU & 26-14 ATS since ’03. As favorites of 7-points or more themselves, C-USA teams are 16-2 SU but just 6-12 ATS since ’98.

C-USA teams are just 6-18 SU & 7-17 ATS in their L24 NCAA Tournament games when playing as the underdog.

Combined against teams from the Big 12, Big East, and Big Ten conferences, C-USA teams are just 8-16 SU & 6-18 ATS in the NCAA’s since ’98.

OVER has been the total of choice in Conference USA NCAA tourney games, 34-17-2 since ’02, including nine of the last 10 games.

Mountain West (B)

Mountain West teams are a just 8-22 SU & 9-18-2 ATS in the NCAA Tournament since ’00, and no team from the MWC ever advanced past the Sweet 16.

MWC teams are a combined 2-14 SU & 3-13 ATS versus the Big 12, Big East, SEC, and Big Ten in the NCAA’s since ’00.

OVER the total has been the result in nine of the L11 Mountain West NCAA Tournament games.

PAC 10 (A)

Favorites own a 34-8 SU & 28-14 ATS mark in the last two years of Pac 10 NCAA Tournament games. Pac 10 teams are just 18-24 ATS in that span.

Dating back to UCLA’s loss to Florida in the ’06 title game, Pac 10 teams have been HORRIBLE as underdogs in the NCAA Tournament, 3-14 SU & ATS.

Pac 10 teams are 22-20 SU but just 14-26-2 ATS in rounds two and three of the NCAA’s since ’02.

Against non-power conferences, or those graded “B” or below, Pac 10 teams are 17-1 SU & 13-5 ATS over the L4 tournaments.

Pac 10 NCAA Tournament favorites of 7-points or more have gone 11-1 UNDER the total the last five years, allowing just 52.2 PPG.

SEC (A)

Since Florida’s championship in 2007, SEC teams are a mediocre 5-9 SU & ATS in the tournament.

The SEC has only one once in its L19 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog of more than 5-points, and is 9-10 ATS. However, as an underdog of 5-points or less, SEC teams are 18-14 SU & 20-11-1 ATS since ’98.

The SEC has enjoyed success against non-power conference foes in the NCAA’s over the last five years, going 15-5 SU & 13-7 ATS.

Over the last three years, 17 of the L28 SEC NCAA Tournament games have gone OVER the total.

Other Notable Recent Tournament Trends by Conference

America East (D) teams have gone UNDER the total in nine of their L13 tourney games, scoring just 55.7 PPG.

Atlantic Sun (D) teams are 0-8 SU in the NCAA’s since ’02, but 6-2 ATS.

Big Sky (C) teams have lost their last four tournament games, both SU & ATS, by an average of 20.8 PPG.

Big South (D) teams are 9-3 UNDER the total in the last 12 years of the tournament, scoring just 56.4 PPG.

Dating back to ’00, Colonial Athletic Association (C) teams are 12-4-2 ATS in the NCAA Tournament, pulling three first round upsets.

Horizon League (C) teams are 9-11 SU & 12-8 ATS in the NCAA’s since the league’s inception in ’02.

The Ivy League (C) hasn’t won a NCAA Tournament game since ’98, going 1-11 ATS.

MAC (B) teams haven’t won a game in the NCAA’s since ’03 and are 3-4 ATS in that span, including two outright losses as favorites.

After going 9-1 ATS between ’98 & ‘05, MEAC (D) teams have gone 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS since in the NCAA’s.

Against teams from the ACC, Big 12, and SEC, the Missouri Valley Conference (B) is on a 15-4 ATS run in the NCAA Tournament.

Northeast (D) teams are 2-0 SU & ATS in the play-in game, winning in ’06 & ’08.

Ohio Valley (C) teams are on a 5-1 ATS run in the Big Dance, including a win in the play-in game of ’09.

Patriot League (D) teams are on a 7-4 ATS run in the NCAA’s with two outright upsets to their credit.

Fueled mostly by Davidson’s success, Southern Conference (C) teams are 9-2 ATS in the NCAA’s since ’02.

The Summit League (C), formerly known as the Mid-Continent, is on a 12-game losing streak in the tournament’s Round of 64, going 2-10 ATS.

The Sun Belt (C) has been one of the country’s best bets in the NCAA’s of late, going 3-8 SU but 8-3 ATS since ’03.

Since covering six straight from ’02-04, the WAC (B) is on a brutal 2-9 SU & 3-9 ATS skid in the NCAA Tournament.

West Coast (C) teams are 6-8 SU and 3-11 ATS in the Big Dance since ’05. OVER the total is 10-4 in that span.

Best NCAA Tournament Teams Against the Spread:

With the NCAA Tournament just set to get underway, everyone is wondering which teams will pull the biggest upsets? While it’s hard to say, we can tell you there are quite a few smart picks in the NCAAB betting odds. Let’s look at some of this year’s NCAA Tournament teams who had the best record against the spread in 2010.

North Texas Mean Green (24-8 SU, 17-6-1 ATS): The Mean Green huh? You better believe it, as few teams were better against the spread this year or come into the NCAA Tournament hotter than them.

The numbers on North Texas are nothing short of staggering. They have now won 11 games in a row straight up, 15 of their last 17, and lost by more than three points just once since the middle of January. Maybe even more impressive is that they’re 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games. The Mean Green are pretty mean after all huh?

Northern Iowa Panthers (28-4 SU, 21-10 ATS): Watching Northern Iowa, they don’t do an awful lot to impress you. They aren’t overly physical, athletic, and only average 63 points a game. So how can they be one of the favorites of the bettors in 2010? Because of their defense.

They ranked second in all of college basketball, allowing just 54 points a game, and were even better in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament, as in three games, they allowed an average of just 44. They enter the NCAA Tournament as a smart pick, as they’ve won 12 of their last 14 games, but are just 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games.

St. Mary’s Gaels (26-5, 20-9-1): We all know about St. Mary’s for their upset of Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference final, but the bettors have been on them all year.

The Gaels come into the NCAA’s as one of the most underrated offensive teams in all of college basketball, as their 79 points a game, and close to 49 percent field goal percentage both rank in the top 20 in college basketball.

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However, it is important to note that St. Mary’s was not great down the stretch, as they were just 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games, but did rebound to go 4-1 ATS in their last five.

Temple Owls (28-5, 22-11): It’ll be hard for Temple to sneak up on anyone once in the tournament kicks off, but over the course of the season, they’ve been one of the best bets in the NCAA Betting Odds.

The Owls are red-hot as they come into the tournament on a 10-game winning streak, with their last loss coming all the way back on February 6 against Richmond. However, they avenged that loss with a 66-62 win over the Spiders Sunday, covering the 3.5 points they were giving.

That’s been a trend of late with the Owls, as they are a staggering 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games, and 5-0 ATS in their last five.

There may not be a smarter play, as we enter the NCAA Tournament than the Owls.

Worst NCAA Tournament Teams Against the Spread

With the NCAA Tournament just a few days from tipping off, it’s never to early to start making your wagers in the NCAA Betting Odds. But who are some of the teams to stay away from? We look into that now, as we dissect some of the worst teams against the spread in college basketball.

Texas Longhorns (24-9 SU, 8-18 ATS): While some teams have been worse overall than the Longhorns, few have been as lousy, as much, as Texas lately.

The Longhorns enter the tournament beat up but physically and mentally, and those who backed them this season feel same way. They come in having gone just 7-9 overall since the middle of January, when they became the No. 1 team in the country. Their record is even worse against the spread, as they are just 2-8 in their last 10.

And with guards Dogus Balbay and Varez Ward out for the year, things won’t be getting easier, any time soon. Make sure to stay away from the Longhorns this March.

Michigan State Spartans (24-8, 12-19 ATS): One of the few teams that Texas actually played well was Michigan State, who they beat way back in December 79-68. While Michigan State has been a bit better since then, they’ve hardly been a favorite of the online sports betting fans in 2010.

Coming into the NCAA’s, they are just 6-4 SU and just 4-6 against the spread in their last 10. Even more concerning should be their schedule. Look at it closely, they don’t have many quality wins, losing to Texas, Florida and North Carolina early in the season, and splitting a pair of games with Big 10 rivals, Wisconsin, Illinois and Purdue and losing to Ohio State in their only meeting.

Even more alarming? Their best wins appears to be at Purdue, but look closer. The Boilermakers didn’t have Robbie Hummel in that game.

Still like the Spartans to do damage this March?

Florida State Seminoles (22-9 SU, 8-18 ATS): As a whole the ACC was down in 2010, and Florida State did very little to help that public perception, as they were one of the absolute worst teams against the spread in this year’s NCAA Tournament.

Like Michigan State, the Seminoles appear to have gotten the job done in the ACC, finishing with a 10-6 league mark. But once again look deeper. They went a combined 0-5 against Duke, Maryland and Clemson, all NCAA Tournament teams. They’re also just 1-5 against the spread in their last six games.

Louisville Cardinals (20-12 SU, 10-17 ATS): There’s nothing to really tell you about the Cardinals except that they’re just 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games. Yikes!

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Handicapping Horse Racing//Kentucky Derby Tips

1. Look for horses that finished in the placing, that is first, second or third at their last four starts in their current campaign.

2. Include any non-placed run if it was within two lengths of the winner.

3. Last run must be on a metropolitan track unless it is a city standard horse. This little method will give you plenty of horses to check out and regularly comes up with some good winners.

Remember occasionally taking odds on about a horse is like putting your head in a hot oven. Regularly taking odds on is like putting your head in a hot oven and closing the door!

Always check and see what odds the TAB and bookies are offering and take the one, which will provide the best return.

Horses that are true odds on's chances are generally very short in the betting ring, often odds on. You are very lucky if you can get better than 6/4. Of course there are also plenty of true 2/1 and 3/1 chances or even worse that are offered at 6/4 in the betting ring. Bettors generally take the short odds because they feel comfortable knowing plenty of money has gone on the horse. If they lose, many other bettors lose along with them. That is also why many media tipsters like tipping the short priced favorites. They know there is no value backing most of these horses, but because they accept that their tips are going to lose overall they want the comfort of being incorrect in the same way as most other judges.

ITEMS TO CONSIDER WHEN WAGERING ON A HORSE

Here are some simple tactics which may be helpful to a new bettor:

Fitness

Before a horse can be considered, it should be determined that he's physically fit enough to be at or near his best. Athletes become fit via two avenues, competition and training. Examine the dates of prior last races, found at the far left of the past performance line. The more recent races he has, the more certain of his fitness.

If he's been away from the races for two months or more, examine morning training workouts shown underneath the last past performance line. It is generally understood that fitness is best derived by a combination of competition and training. The longer the layoff, the more difficult the comeback. Make a final determination and if deemed fit, go to the next variable. If not, eliminate.

Class

Class in Thoroughbred racing can be defined by saying that class is the quality of competition a horse can compete favorably against. Look at the prior conditions under which the horse has raced. Regardless of any other variable, a horse cannot be expected to win without having shown a past ability to do so against similar competition. If he has not shown the past ability, he can be considered a throw-out, unless he's rapidly improving and won his last race with enough authority to move up in class against tougher competition. If he's fit and can compete against the competition, move to the next variable.

Distance

Through either breeding, conformation, running style, or training techniques, horses generally do better at certain distances. Few are versatile enough to handle short and long races effectively. Examine all races listed to determine if he's done well at the designated distance. If he's a proven competitor at today's distance, continue to consider him, and eliminate him if he's had numerous opportunities without success. He may show a potential to handle the distance, but can't be overly well regarded without proof. Remember, never expect a horse to do something he's never done before.

Post Position

The Post Position Draw, a random drawing done after entries for a race are taken, can often turn a potential winner into a dead loser, and vice-versa! Track biases exist at many tracks, favoring inside or outside post positions. Check post position statistics listed in programs or Lone Star Today to see if certain posts appear better than others. As a general rule, far outside posts in bulky fields in sprints (10 or more) can prove more challenging. The two inside posts in big fields can also be detrimental. Early speed is preferable for both inside and outside posts because without it, outside horses lose ground and inside ones get trapped. A horse's running style and the post position are directly correlated. In longer, two-turn-races, inside posts are almost always preferred. The shorter the two-turn race, the more it favors inside. If it can be determined that the post will not be a detriment, move on. But a horse can be thrown out if it is determined his chances will be badly compromised by post position.

Running Style

Horses generally settle into a certain style of running, broken down into three categories: pace-setter or front runner, horses who run in the lead or who are never further back than two lengths; stalker, horses who are never further back from the lead than 4 lengths; and closer or rally types, horses who are never closer than five lengths from the pace. Horses have been known to change styles, but the vast majority have consistent styles. True front runners always try for the lead when possible. Front runners are most effective when unchallenged early. The easier they are able to get a clear lead, the better the chances. Prefer front runners when there are few, if any, potential challengers or if a pronounced track bias favoring early speed exists. Otherwise, look more favorably upon those that can stalk or rally.

A stalker rarely makes the lead, and seldom possesses a big late kick. They have the speed to stay close and pass tiring front runners, and can hold off the big closers that lag well behind. Stalkers can make the lead if no front runners are in the race. Prefer stalkers when numerous front runners are present, and without the presence of a strong and fit rally or closer horse.

Rally or closers are best when an abundance of early speed exists and are often victimized when a front runner is loose on the lead. Playing rally or closers is more precarious than horses with speed as they can run into traffic problems. And, statistics show that horses closer to the lead win the majority of races. However, under certain circumstances, closers are a very positive choice.

Trainer

Give careful consideration to the trainer, who is like the coach. Everyone knows that some coaches are superior to others and there can be a large discrepancy be-tween the best and the worst. Trainers have a big job and must have a wealth of knowledge about a large number of facets of training a horse to race. They must not only be good horsemen, they must have excellent organizational skills in order to coordinate the efforts of an entire stable. Statistics point out the top trainers at the track and a handicapper that pays attention to the trainers of every horse in every race will soon have a good working knowledge of which ones are acceptable when making a final decision. If the trainer meets the handicapper's standards, he can move on to the next variable. But an elimination can be made if you feel the competence of the conditioner is in question.

Jockey

The role of the jockey is often understated. Checking out statistics at most tracks, a small percentage of riders win the great majority of the races. It takes a great deal of skill to ride a horse in a race. To suggest that all riders are equally proficient is ludicrous. Jockeys must possess good riding techniques, have strength, intelligence, good judgment and timing and have an ability to communicate with the horse. Some jockeys are far more proficient than others, and by perusing the statistics or by simply watching them day in and day out, one can learn which are the most reliable. When making a final decision, be sure the horse you select has an acceptable rider. When eliminating horses in fields with numerous contenders, you may be able to eliminate a horse because of the rider alone.

Present Form

When making a final selection it's important to determine that the horse is in good present form. Examining the finishes of his most recent races tells you if he's racing well and competitively. Statistics prove that horses that have recently won or have been reasonably close, win the majority of races. Most horses have form cycles in that they run well for a period of time, then tail off. Initially select horses that appear to be in form or rounding to form, and be wary of ones that have raced well, but show signs of tailing off. Sometimes horses that have not been close to winning of late are dropped in class and can still be considered viable choices, but the handicapper should expect that the horse in question at least showed some interest against better competition. Be careful not to give too much consideration to horses that are dropping down after showing no life at all as they may have lost their will to compete. After all, any horse can be last in a race. When making a final decision, it's a wise practice to play horses with good present form and eliminate those that are obviously off form.

Consistency

Before considering a horse a top contender, examine his record for the year and his lifetime record. A handicapper should look for horses that are more likely to run well than not. If they have finished in the money 50% of the time, they can be deemed consistent. Many horses with poor consistency records cannot be heavily relied upon to run well after a good effort the time before. So, despite a good recent race, they have shown a past tendency not to repeat strong performances. A horse coming off a good race returning in a similar situation is hard to disregard. But if he's shown a lack of past consistency, his lack of reliability would make it difficult to make a serious wager on him. A handicapper should demand consistency before making a horse a serious contender.

Weight

Some handicappers use the weight carried by a horse as a critical factor. This is a controversial variable among astute handicappers. A truism is that weight will stop a freight train. However, determining how a few pounds, more or less, will affect a horse's performance isn't easy to assess. Race horses can weigh well over 1,000 pounds. So humans, who generally weigh about 80% less, would find it hard to understand how 10 pounds affects a horse in comparison to a much less sturdy and strong human. Proportionately speaking, one could assume that ten pounds to a human, which is significant, may feel like only two pounds to a horse. Obviously, two pounds is hardly enough to slow him down much.

If you decide to use weight as a handicapping variable, it would seem wise to consider it more important as the length of the race increases. It may also be prudent not to consider weight a factor unless it involves at least a difference of five pounds or more. You may also want to use weight if comparing horses in the same race if there is a significant switch in weights, like one horse taking off five pounds coming out of a race against a rival who may be adding five pounds. Generally, weight may play a lesser role than many have believed and without knowing each horse's capacity to carry weight, it may be impossible to use effectively. Nonetheless, for those who have found success using this variable, it may have a place in making a final decision.

Speed Figures

Various speed figures (Beyers, etc.) have been compiled in recent years. These figures basically assign a number to each race run by a horse. Beyer numbers, for instance, are based almost exclusively by running times in conjunction with track conditions. Speed sheets, put out by Ragozin and others, also use difficulty of trip to determine the figure. Some arbitrary judgment made by the representative for each track also figures into the final number.

The number certainly reduces a horse's past performance to just digits and can be used to quickly identify the contenders. However, as speed figure producers suggest, the handicapper is implored to use other handicapping techniques to be used in conjunction with the number.

The numbers, if used, should be used more as a guide. Although at times, a horse with an apparently large advantage may be a play on the number alone. But, obviously no guarantee exists. Generally speaking, use speed figures as one of the many available handicapping tools.

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2009 College Football Preseason Top 25

The Gators are our pick to win the whole enchilada again for a number of reasons. First, quality quarterback play is paramount and head coach Urban Meyer has Superman in shoulder pads under center in Tim Tebow (30 touchdown passes, 12 rushing scores last season). Tebow has done everything a collegian can do, winning one Heisman and two national titles, but he isn’t resting on his laurels. Knowing that he needs to refine his throwing motion in order to succeed in the NFL, Tebow is working with new Gator quarterbacks coach Scott Loeffler.

Tebow isn’t the only key leader who elected to stay in Gainesville. All 11 starters from last year’s defense—a unit that held Oklahoma to just two touchdowns in last year’s BCS title game—are all back. That group, includes linebacker Brandon Spikes (2008 All-American who recorded a team-high 93 tackles) as well as four 2008 second-team All-SEC performers in Joe Haden (87 tackles), Carlos Dunlap (13.5 sacks), Ahmad Black (seven interceptions) and Jermaine Cunningham. Toss in an All-SEC kick returner in Brandon James and playmakers galore for Tebow to throw and hand off to and it’s easy to imagine the Gators holding up the national title hardware again come January.

1. FLORIDA GATORS

Strengths: Along with one of the nation’s best coaches in Meyer and one of college football’s all-time greats in Tebow, the Gators have 18 starters back in the fold.
Nagging questions: Will the Gators stay hungry? The SEC is college football’s version of the Ultimate Fighting Championship. If you don’t come ready to play each and every Saturday, then you’ll get your teeth knocked in because this conference is chock-full of future pros.
Make or break game: at LSU, Oct. 10. With home games versus Charleston Southern, Troy and Tennessee and then a road trip to Kentucky to open the season, the Gators figure to be 4-0 and No. 1 in the land as they head to Cajun country to play in one of college football’s toughest venues. Win this one and Team Tebow could run the table.

2. OKLAHOMA SOONERS

Strengths: With the reigning Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback (Sam Bradford), two tailbacks who rushed for a combined 2,222 yards and 34 scores in Chris Brown and DeMarco Murray, and a battle-tested defense that returns nine starters, the Sooners have the horses to return to the BCS title game.
Nagging questions: Bradford (4,720 yards, 50 touchdowns, eight interceptions) is as accurate a passer as there is in college. But with four new starters along the offensive line, one wonders if he’ll have anywhere near as much time to stand in the pocket and work his magic.
Make or break game: vs. Texas, Oct. 17. The Sooners will have a pair of interesting early season quizzes to pass versus BYU (Sept. 5) and at Miami, Fla. (Oct. 3), but this showdown in Big D is a must-see affair for any college football fan or NFL scouts worth their salt.

3. TEXAS LONGHORNS

Strengths: The Longhorns will light up scoreboards in 2009 as eight starters return on offense, paced by the pass-catch combo of Colt McCoy (3,859 passing yards, 34 touchdowns) and Jordan Shipley (88 receptions, 1,060 yards, 11 scores).
Nagging questions: Will the Kindle experiment work? Mack Brown has moved linebacker Sergio Kindle (10 sacks) to end to help ease the loss of quarterback harasser Brian Orakpo to NFL riches. It’s worth the gamble because Kindle doesn’t need a GPS system to find his way into enemy backfields and the Longhorns’ linebacking corps still features an All- American candidate in Roddrick Muckelrot (team-best 112 tackles).
Make or break game: vs. Oklahoma, Oct. 17. This battle of top five teams will be one of the most widely anticipated games of the entire season.

4. USC TROJANS

Strengths: Each year, head coach Pete Carroll (88-15 record at USC) loses truckloads of talent to the NFL, but continues to keep on winning. With two young pups in sophomore Aaron Corp and true freshman Matt Barkley competing to replace Mark Sanchez at quarterback, look for Carroll to lean on his tailbacks (C.J. Gable, Stafon Johnson and Joe McKnight) and his Taylor Mays-led defense a little heavier in the early part of the season.
Nagging questions: Can the Trojans keep their string of winning 11 or more games in seven straight seasons intact, even after losing an NCAA-high 11 players in the NFL draft? It won’t be easy. But if one of the young quarterbacks blossom and USC’s all-new starting linebacking corps of Michael Morgan, Chris Galippo and Malcolm Smith is as good as Carroll thinks they are, then expect the Trojans to stay near the top of the national polls.
Make or break game: vs. Ohio State, Sept. 12. After a glorified scrimmage in Week 1 versus San Jose State, the Trojans’ quarterback and rebuilt defense will truly be put to the test in Columbus.

5. VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES

Strengths: Frank Beamer is one of the best X-and-O men in the college ranks, a fact that he illustrated last fall by leading the young Hokies to 10 wins and their fourth ACC title in six years. With 16 starters back, most notably tailback Darren Evans and defensive playmakers Jason Worilds, Stephan Virgil and Kam Chancellor, the Hokies will once again be the class of the ACC.
Nagging questions: Quarterback Tyrod Taylor, an absolute blur as a runner, must become a better passer or foes will overload the box in hopes of stopping him and Evans (1,265 rushing yards, 11 scores) from beating them with their feet.
Make or break game: vs. Alabama, Sept. 5. Rather than open with Creampuff University or Cupcake State, the Hokies begin 2009 in Atlanta versus Alabama in a battle of powerhouse teams.

6. PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS

Strengths: Quarterback Daryll Clark can beat opposing defenses with his arm and feet, while tailback Evan Royster might be the most underrated player in the Big Ten. The healthy return of linebacker Sean Lee, who missed all of last season with a bum knee, gives “Linebacker U” one of those tough-as-a-$2 steak linebackers that all great Penn State teams have.
Nagging questions: Three playmaking wideouts, DerrickWilliams, Deon Butler and Jordan Norwood, must all be replaced and the offensive line needs some serious retooling. But Joe Paterno has plenty of time to plug those holes as the Nittany Lions face an early soft schedule (Akron, Syarcuse and Temple all visit State College) that should be sponsored by Charmin.
Make or break game: vs. Iowa, Sept. 26. After three all-but-but guaranteed wins to start the season, the Nittany Lions will face two tough foes in a row, versus Iowa (Sept. 26) at home and then at Illinois (Oct. 3). Sweep those two and Paterno’s squad should be 9-0 when Ohio State visits in early November.

7. ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE

Strengths: No college team in America has a better sideline boss than Nick Saban. His defense, a unit that returns nine starters and has a future pro at each level (tackle Terrance Cody, linebacker Roalndo McClain and cornerback Javier Arenas), should be lights out.
Nagging questions:We, at Football Action, were tempted to pick the Tide even higher, but there are some positions with new starters, including quarterback (where John ParkerWilson is gone), left tackle (where All-American Andre Smith is now a rich pro) and safety (where All-SEC performer Rashad Johnson no longer patrols).
Make or break game: vs. Virginia Tech, Sept. 5 at the Georgia Dome.

8. OREGON DUCKS

Strengths: Thanks to the return of eight starters, including quarterback Jeremiah Masoli and running back LeGarrette Blount, first-year head coach Chip Kelly has the makings of another explosive offense. The linebacking corps of Spencer Paysinger, Casey Matthews and Eddie Pleasant is top shelf.
Nagging questions: Can Jordan Holmes do a decent job of replacing center Max Unger, a 2009 first-round draft choice who anchored the Ducks’ blocking schemes? Will the secondary, minus two of its primary stars in safety Patrick Chung and cornerback Jarius Byrd, be able to survive a tough early schedule?
Make or break game: at Boise State, Sept. 3. Kelly should take up the Ducks’ September schedule with former coach- Mike Bellotti, now Oregon’s athletic director. After opening on the “Smurf Turf” versus Boise State, the Ducks then host Purdue, Utah and California in the season’s first month.

9. OHIO STATE BUCKEYES

Strengths: Sure, a bevy of stars are gone, but sophomore signal-caller Terrelle Pryor is back to terrorize opposing Big Ten defenses with his feet and his arm. Speaking of terrors, the defensive line features two all-league caliber players in Cameron Heyward and Lawrence Wilson.
Nagging questions: Can Pryor improve his passing aim? And will Ohio State’s rebuilt linebacking and receiving corps be ready when USC visits the Horseshoe?
Make or break game: vs. USC, Sept. 12. Two of college football’s most storied programs will lock horns early in the 2009 season. The winner will stamp itself as a national title contender.

10. OLE MISS REBELS

Strengths: Surprised? Don’t be. Mississippi will be the chic accessory in everybody’s top 10—and with good reason. In Houston Nutt’s first season at the helm, the Rebels beat Florida and LSU during the regular season and Texas in the Cotton Bowl. Jevan Snead doesn’t get a fraction of the ink that Tebow does, but he’s a big-time quarterback. Leading rusher Dexter McCluster returns, as does sackmaster Greg Hardy.
Nagging questions: The anchors of both lines—offensive tackle Michael Oher and nose tackle Peria Jerry—were literally two big reasons that Rebels were able to defeat some of college football’s big boys last year. They’re both cashing NFL checks now and will be sorely missed.
Make or break game: vs. Alabama,Oct. 10. The Rebels will find out if they’re for real or masquerading as a top 10 team.

11. OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS

Strengths: The three-headed monster of quarterback Zac Robinson (3,064 yards, 25 touchdowns), wideout Dez Bryant (87 receptions, 1,480 yards, 19 scores) and tailback Kendall Hunter (119.6 yards rushing per game) ensures that scoring points won’t be a problem for the Cowboys. Bryant will be on most Heisman short lists entering the season.
Nagging questions: Head coach Mike Gundy’s Maalox moments are about replacing three-fourths of his secondary, a unit that struggled against the elite teams.
Make or break game: vs. Georgia, Sept. 5. Many folks believe that Oklahoma State will be this year’s Missouri, a team that can score points but will find itself in its fair share of shootouts because of a leaky stop unit. New defensive cordinator Bill Young will learn a lot about his charges right out of the gate when Georgia visits Stillwater.

12. BOISE STATE BRONCOS

Strengths: Quarterback Kellen Moore (3,486 yards, 25 touchdowns) is the nation’s best quarterback that you’ve never heard of. He’ll headline a potent offense, along with tailback Jeremy Avery (614 yards). The defense has a lock-down corner in first-team All-WAC player Kyle Wilson, a pass-rushing demon in Ryan Winterswyk and a hard-hitting safety in Jeron Johnson (98 tackles).
Nagging questions: Will wideout Titus Young be able to stay out of the coaching staff’s doghouse? Young was suspended for 10 games last season. He’ll give Moore a much-needed home-run threat.
Make or break game: vs. Oregon, Sept. 3. The ESPN cameras will be in Idaho for this September matchup.

13. LSU TIGERS

Strengths: Sophomore quarterback Jordan Jefferson looked like a worldbeater in the Tigers’ 38-3 rout of Georgia Tech in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl. If he’s a starin- the-making and former Tennesee defensive coordinator John Chavis can solidify LSU’s defense, then the 2007 national champs could ascend back into the top 10.
Nagging questions: Can Chavis get enough productivity from a defensive line that includes Rahim Alem, Pep Levingston and oft-injured Charles Alexander, who received a sixth year of eligibility, to pressure the steady stream of quality quarterbacks on the Tigers’ schedule?
Make or break game: at Washington, Sept. 5. Head coach Les Miles will get an early indication of how well his team will play on the road when it heads to the Pacific Northwest to open the season. The Tigers have their share of tough road trips ahead with games at Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi on the docket.

14. GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS

Strengths: The Yellow Jackets return all 11 starters on offense, so they should be able to run Paul Johnson’s triple-option offensive attack with more aplomb in 2009. Tailback Jonathan Dwyer (1,395 yards, 12 scores) is one of the best runners in the country.
Nagging questions: Rebuilding the defensive line is at the top of Tech’s to-do list. Tackles Darryl Richard and Vance Walker will be hard to replace. Also, will signal-caller Josh Nesbitt (43.9 completion percentage) improve his throwing aim enough to keep foes from putting everyone in the box against the Jackets?
Make or break game: at Miami (Fla.), Sept. 17. While most of the top ACC opponents (Clemson, North Carolina, Virginia Tech and Wake Forest) will travel to Atlanta to battle against Georgia Tech, this trip and one to Tallahassee on Oct. 10 could tell the tale for Johnson’s squad.

15. EAST CAROLINA PIRATES

Strengths: Head coach Skip Holtz welcomes back 16 starters—eight on offense and eight on defense. He has a budding star under center in quarterback Patrick Pinkney. If Kentucky transfer Brandon Jackson can be an every-down back, the Pirates will score points. East Carolina’s defense features a proven playmaker at each tier: tackle Linval Joseph, linebacker Nick Johnson and safety Van Eskridge.
Nagging questions: Can a Conference USA team be a BCS buster for the first time? To do so, East Carolina must negotiate two rugged road trips—West Virginia (Sept. 12) and Virginia Tech (Nov. 5).
Make or break game: at Virginia Tech, Nov. 5. In order to be a fly in the BCS ointment, the Pirateswill need to upend the Hokies in Blacksburg,which is no small task.

16. GEORGIA BULLDOGS

Strengths: Mark Richt is a proven offensive whiz, but even his skills will be put to the test as quarterback Matthew Stafford and tailback Knowshon Moreno are both now NFL millionaires. Richt is confident that senior Joe Cox will be a competent signal-caller. The defense is littered with talent—most notably linbacker Rennie Curran, tackle Geno Atkins, safety Reshad Jones and corner Prince Miller.
Nagging questions: Replacing Moreno, now a Denver Bronco, won’t be a oneman job. Richt hopes that sophomores Caleb King and Richard Samuel—along with Carlton Thomas and Dontavius Jackson— can do the trick.
Make or break game: at Oklahoma State, Sept. 5. As if test-your-manhood tussles with SEC foes weren’t enough, Georgia travels to Stillwater to open the season against a Cowboy team that scores.

17. IOWA HAWKEYES

Strengths: Kirk Ferentz is constantly the subject of NFL rumors, because he is so adept at building offensive lines and football is won in the trenches. Quarterback Rick Stanzi is back, with a much-improved throwing motion. The back seven of Iowa’s defense will be strong as all three starting linebackers and three/fourths of the secondary return.
Nagging questions: Ferentz has allleague caliber answers at the two tackle spots in Bryan Bulaga and Kyle Calloway, but needs to find a new center and two new guards. Also, can gifted tailback Jewel Hampton fill the cleats of all-everything tailback Shonn Greene, now with the Jets?
Make or break game: at Penn State, Sept. 26. After in-state tests versus Northern Iowa and Iowa State, followed by a visit from Arizona, the Hawkeyes’ first venture out of the state will be a real doozy as they visit Happy Valley.

18. CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS

Strengths: True to his last name, Jahvid Best, who rushed for 1,580 yards and 15 scores, is the best runner in the Pac-10. He’s not a household name yet, but the people that matter most (NFL scouts) know his name. The defense returns seven starters, including end Cameron Jordan and cornerback Syd’Quan Thompson.
Nagging questions: Will quarterback Kevin Riley take this team by the throat? He has much more game experience than sophomore Brock Mansion or redshirt freshman Beau Sweeney, but head coach Jeff Tedford won’t pick a winner in the quarterback derby until August.
Make or break game: at Oregon, Sept. 26. The Bears host USC one week later.

19. BYU COUGARS

Strengths: BYU’s offense, led by senior quarterback Max Hall and junior tailback Harvey Unga, should be high-octane, if the Cougars’ offensive line holds up and Unga, who was bothered by various bumps and bruises, can stay healthy.
Nagging questions:Will the offensive line (four new starters) be adequate enough to give Hall time to throw?Will wideout McKay Jacobson regain his pre-mission form, easing the loss of Austin Collie.
Make or break game: atOklahoma, Sept. 5. The Cougars have a whopper of a season opener, taking on the reigningHeisman Trophywinner, SamBradford, and the Sooners’ absolutely electric offense.

20. MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS

Strengths: Mark Dantonio is quite a coach and he has the makings of a stingy defense in East Lansing. Lineman Trevor Anderson and linebacker Greg Jones are both disruptive forces who will play on Sundays, while the secondary will be the strongest of Dantonio’s tenure.
Nagging questions: Can either Kirk Cousins or Keith Nichol be the answer under center? The winner of the quarterback competition doesn’t have to do everything himself as both starting wideouts, three starting linemen and the starting tight end are all back.
Make or break game: at Notre Dame, Sept. 19. The Spartans’ new signalcaller will be on a big stage in this nationally televised affair in South Bend.

21. FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES

Strengths: A seasoned offensive line, anchored by All-America-caliber guard Rodney Hudson, should give quarterback Christian Ponder (2,006 yards, 14 touchdowns, 13 interceptions) plenty of time to throw and tailback Jermaine Thomas sufficient holes to run through.
Nagging questions: With only five returning starters, the Seminoles’ defense has some serious questions.
Make or break game: vs. Miami (Fla.), Sept. 7. These two bitter in-state rivals always seem to play close games. The winner of this ACC opener between one-time college football superpowers will stamp itself as a top 25 team.

22. NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS

Strengths: Second-year Huskers head coach Bo Pelini knows how to build defenses. And with seven returning starters, including tackle Ndamukong Suh and safety Larry Asante, he’ll have a stout unit. The schedule, with Texas not on the slate and with Oklahoma and Texas Tech coming to Lincoln, is favorable.
Nagging questions: Signal-callers Zac Lee and Patrick Witt are locked in a battle to replace last year’s starter, Joe Ganz. Lee took a big step toward winning the job in spring ball, but he still has work to do to nail down the No. 1 spot on the depth chart.
Make or break game: at Virginia Tech, Sept. 19. If Nebraska can somehow upset the Hokies, then a 4-0 non-conference record will be assured.

23. NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH

Strengths: Nine starters are back on offense for Charlie Weis, including quarterback Jimmy Clausen and two good playmakers in receivers Golden Tate (1,080 yards, 10 scores) and Michael Floyd (719, 7). Clausen (25 touchdowns, 17 interceptions), who has had his share of growing pains in South Bend, should be well-protected as four offensive line starters return. Look for junior Armando Allen to emerge as a star running back.
Nagging questions: Does Notre Dame have the foot speed, particularly on defense, to deal with the seven 2008 bowl teams on its schedule?
Make or break game: at Michigan, Sept. 12. The Wolverines figure to be better in Year 2 under Rich Rodriguez. But if Notre Dame, which opens at home on Sept. 5 versus Nevada, wants to be a player on the national stage, then it needs to win at the Big House to get out of the gate with a 2-0 mark.

24. CINCINNATI BEARCATS

Strengths: After leading the Bearcats to the Big East title and a BCS berth in the Orange Bowl, quarterback Tony Pike still isn’t satisfied. He’s added 10 pounds of muscle to his frame and, with seven other returning offensive starters back, seems poised to build on last year’s success (2,407 yards passing, 19 touchdowns).
Nagging questions: With only one returning defensive starter (safety Aaron Webster) from last year’s 11-3 team, first-year coordinator Bob Diaco raided the offensive two deep to find the athletes necessary to run his 3-4 scheme.
Make or break game: at Rutgers, Sept. 7. The Bearcats new-look defense will be road-tested right away.

25. UTAH UTES

Strengths: The Utes, of course, were the nation’s only unbeaten team last year at 13-0. The strength of this year’s team will be the defense, a unit that brings back seven starters—most notably, end Kao Misi and linebacker Stevenson Sylvester.
Nagging questions: Quarterback Brian Johnson is gone and it’s a three-man race to replace him with juniors Corbin Louks and Terrance Cain battling newcomer JordanWynn to man the controls of the offense.With only four returning offensive starters back, the wheels of proven tailback Matt Asiaia (707 yards rushing, 12 scores) will need to carry the offense early on.
Make or break game: at Oregon, Sept. 19. This game against the Ducks will be a good barometer for a team that will need to win on the road at TCU and BYU in order to defend its Mountain West crown.

Handicapping NCAA Basketball Tips///March Madness Tips/Schedule

Capping for 2009-10 College Hoops

With North Carolina cutting down the nets in Detroit, the 2008-09 college hoops season is history and what can happen next season keeps alumni contributing to their school’s athletic fund and dreaming of sitting behind the team bench in next year’s Final Four. The cry comes out “if we only would have had better facilities” we would have landed that five-star recruit from Montrose Oak Prep Academy.

For the sports bettor, it is never too early to start looking at next year in college hoops. With so many teams and players and coaches moving to a new program, college hoops requires the most preseason handicapping preparation of all sports. Actually, this is the best time to start taking notes while this current season is still fresh on your mind. Hours invested today in study and research are reminiscent of what retirement accounts and mutual funds used to be like: things that grow in value as time goes by.

It is time to start checking schools recruiting classes and incoming, as well as outgoing, transfers. When you actually check the number of transfers that even actually play for their new school, it is alarmingly less than you would expect. Or they fail to live up to lofty expectations, such as the case of originally highly touted 6-10 Eric Boateng who went to Arizona State from Duke. Boateng averaged less than 8 minutes and two points a game this past season.

We’ve already had some major coaching changes, the most notable being the hiring of Memphis’s John Calipari to fill the departure of Billy Gillespie at Kentucky. Mark Gottfried at Alabama finally used up his nine lives while Tony Bennett departs Washington State bringing his Princeton-style offense to Virginia. Mark Fox travels from the University of Nevada to replace Dennis Felton at Georgia. If any other larger schools have job openings, expect to see Creighton’s Dana Altman or New Mexico’s Steve Alford names tossed around.

The pressure for getting the top recruits increased the day the NBA said they required draftees to be one year removed from high school and must have their 19th birthday, or later, in the year of the draft. This rule, in theory, was going to help prevent any more Korleone Youngs, the 1998 poster child of the ill fate that can happen to a high-schooler who shouldn’t go pro early.

However, except for Brandon Jennings who opted for playing overseas in his first year out of high school, we still are seeing a number of “one-and-done” college freshmen. With the continued improvement in early development of players, these one-year players can be program-changers. They can also have a negative effect on a program that can’t reload quickly with capable replacements.

Underclassmen have until April 26 to declare themselves eligible for the draft. Provided they don't sign with an agent, they then have until June 15 to withdraw their names. Some on this year’s list who have already declared are no surprise. Naturally, there will be some “Korleone Youngs” who jump ship too early.

Wake Forest could be the hardest hit school for early professional departures with So. 6-8 James Johnson and Fr. Al-Farouq Aminu most likely leaving and So. PG Jeff Teague also a candidate. Georgetown’s disappointing season could continue into the off-season with 6-8 DaJuan Summers already signing with an agent and 6-10 Fr. Greg Monroe likely to leave.

Both Arizona schools will take a step backwards next year with the Wildcats watching Jordan Hill and Chase Budinger go pro early and possibly even point guard Nic Wise. The Sun Devils will say goodbye to So. James Harden.

Rebuilding next year will be Utah and UAB who both lose four seniors. Both teams had very little depth so the cupboard is fairly bare for returning players. Utah has a very good recruiting class lined up but UAB recently lost a top 5 recruit to Memphis, DeMarcus Cousins. Teams rebuilding with young players should be watched for potential play-on status once conference action gets started and the newbies are learning to play as a team. Early failures can give value later in the season.

With Calipari packing up the U-Haul, recruit Cousins might venture back to the Mike Davis UAB fold or very well could follow Calipari to UK. Currently, this is one of college hoops biggest unsolved mysteries. Who can Calipari bring to UK and who will go elsewhere. Outgoing Kentucky coach Gillespie had signed a fine Wildcat recruiting class including top-flight center Daniel Orton. As of the writing of this article, most everything was up in the air on what would happen.

As judged by one recruiting service, the #1 prospect John Wall, was tempted with Memphis but looks like he is headed to Duke. Lance Stephenson, a top ten recruit, appeared to be signing with Kansas on March 31 but with the Calipari news, he has delayed his announcement.

While Stephenson liked Memphis originally, he appeared to be going elsewhere because another top ten shooting guard recruit, Xavier Henry, had already inked with Calipari at MU. With Calipari leaving Elvis’ hometown, it appears so is Henry as he is possibly signing with Kansas, the alma mater of his father, former Jayhawk standout Carl Henry. Another part of the story is he would like to bring his older brother with him, C.J., who was a walk-on at Memphis last year.

This is becoming better than a soap opera. It appears some recruit’s decisions will be predicated upon who is named the new coach at Memphis. Former NBA coaches Reggie Theus and Avery Johnson are at the top of the list.

Currently, Kansas has the #7 rated incoming class and would get a huge boost if either top 10 recruit, Henry or Stephenson, commits to Kansas. If Cole Aldrich and Sherron Collins don’t leave early for the NBA, Kansas should be ranked in the top 3 in preseason polls.

Definitely battling for Big 12 supremacy next year will be Texas. The Longhorns lose undersized shooting guard A.J. Abrams but he will be quickly forgotten when 6-3 Avery Bradley arrives in Austin. Bradley was the MVP for the USA Today’s #1 ranked Findlay Prep team of Henderson, NV, who won the inaugural National High School Invitational Sunday. The Horns have the #3 rated recruiting class and will be a top ten team next season. They could move closer to #1 if big man Dexter Pittman continues his improvement in skills and conditioning and Damion James progresses as much next year as he did this year.

Marquette loses three senior starters but has a strong five-man recruiting class. North Carolina has snagged four McDonald’s All-Americans for their upcoming season, Villanova, Oklahoma, and Duke have two each. Nova also has inked 6-9 Mouphtaou Yarou, a surprise non-participant in the Mickey D Classic. The Wildcats’ two McDonald’s participants, both guards, were very impressive and will keep the flame burning in Philly. Duke’s players will bring some needed size to the Blue Devils.

The MVP of the McDonald’s Classic, 6-9 Derrick Favors, will remind Georgia Tech fans of Amare Stoudemire. The Yellow Jackets have a top five class with 5 quality recruits signed that should breath life into what was a stagnant offense this past season.

Tom Crean will have Indiana pointed in the right direction next year with a top ten class. UConn might be facing some stiff NCAA penalties as well as losing 3 seniors and in all probability, 7-3 Hasheem Thabeet. With the comments that Connecticut Coach Jim Calhoun is making, you won’t see him on the sidelines next year but in the ESPN studio giving commentary. (after all, he doesn’t live far from their studios)

Cross-town rivals UCLA and USC both have top ten incoming classes. The Bruins lose much more through graduation, though. Pitt loses three senior starters including Sam Young and Levance Fields and probably will see DeJuan Blair opt for the NBA. Not inking an overly strong recruiting class does not bode well for the Panthers next year.

How about a team on the rise that is totally unexpected: Oregon State. Coach Craig Robinson, the President’s brother-in-law, landed two four-star guards and has two Australian frontcourt studs coming in. The surprise of post-season play is also the surprise of the recruiting season.

Do your research now and start uncovering the surprises for the 2009-10 season.

Handicapping NBA Basketball Tips

Football Wagering Tips (General)

The gambler's goal should be to grind out a profit over the course of the season while enjoying watching Football. Football gambling should never be viewed in terms of "Getting Rich Quick."
Successful football gambling requires hard work & homework. Make gambling decisions based on team emotion & situation, current angles & relevant trends, and talent & coaching.
Be smarter than the public. If 90% of the public says one team is a lock this week, the other team is probably the side to PLAY (especially in Pro Football). The average gambler cannot beat the sports book. If they could, there would be no sportsbooks.
Don't bet with your heart and your emotions.
Start with a bankroll that you are comfortable with. Set an amount that, if you lose some or all, it will not affect your standard of living.
Set a dollar amount to a per unit amount, for example: 1 unit = $100.00. Never bet over 4-6% of your bankroll on a single wager.
Do not increase wagers during losing streaks, and do not be conservative during winning streaks.

Establish a line of your own on every college and pro game that you feel comfortable with. Then compare to the posted gambling line at one of the best sportsbooks like BetUS, open an account with them via Credit Card or Western Union. Throw out any emotional games. Then study the ones that are significantly different from the posted odds - these have the best chance of being your winners.

Tips on Picking NFL Winners

I. Early NFL Picks
As early in the week as possible, make a list of the coming games and make your selections. Go with your best guess, gut feeling, or whatever. Skip the games about which you are unsure. In making NFL picks, whether you are an expert or someone who just likes to watch a game now and then, your first decision is often best.

II. The Questionable Games
Go back and mark those NFL picks you are not sure about with a question mark. With fewer decisions remaining, the focus on these games is increased.

III. Daily Review
Tuck your list into a convenient pocket and carry it with you. Look it over several times a day. A minute or two twice a day is far more helpful than an hour of study.

IV. Be an Information Junkie
Read newspapers. If you come to know a given sports writer, you will be able to pick up on the difference between his facts and opinions, and on any bias present. And some publish their NFL picks. There are some shows on TV that may help. Your best bet may be the web. Sites such as CNN, CBS, and Nando.Net are very informative. What others have to say is particularly helpful in thinking about teams you do not follow or do not know much about.

V. Argue to Increase Your Focus
Get into it about your undecided picks with a friend, or anyone interested. Or argue with yourself! "The Bears will stomp Detroit." "No they won't. Here's why." "How come I can't make a simple decision like this?" While this may seem an odd or novel idea, it is a real winner. It dramatically increases the focus on the undecided games. And the greater the focus, the more likely your final pick will be the right one.

VI. Watch Gambling Line Moves
If it drops, then heavy bucks have been placed on the underdog. If it goes up, those bucks are going to the favorite. While public opinion may mean little in many cases, this part of the public is backing their opinion with dollars. If in doubt, you may want to go along.

VII. Make Early Decisions
Make decisions as early as possible. Every undecided you cross off the list leaves one less pick to think about and increases the focus on those remaining. As the list gets shorter, you can run down it mentally without even looking at it.

VIII. Avoid Changing Your Picks
Be hesitant to change any decision already made; more often than not it will be a loser. This seems particularly true in making NFL picks.

IX. Bet on Virtual Bookmaker
At the time to place your bets, choose a sportsbook sponsored by a great client service, promotions and the most important, the experience to offer fast payouts. Sign up on BetUS, by open an account with them via Neteller, Credit Card or Western Union.

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