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Today’s News Insider News

Plenty of contenders in Keeneland's QE II Cup

LEXINGTON, Ky. -- The royals are big on anniversaries, which should make the 25th running of the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland a festive occasion. Thing is, the QE II is always something fancy, to which another killer renewal here Saturday can attest.

Eleven 3-year-old fillies will step onto the turf course for the $500,000 QE II, the sixth and last Grade 1 race of the Keeneland fall meet. Two of the starters, Backseat Rhythm and Magical Fantasy, both enter off Grade 1 wins, but by no means is this close to a match race.

In fact, in terms of accomplishment and potential, not a whole lot appears to separate the entire field, and although Backseat Rhythm and Magical Fantasy rang up that all-important Grade 1 tally by capturing the Garden City and Del Mar Oaks in their respective last starts, clearly there are others capable of doing the same Saturday. Santa Anita Oak's winner Ariege, Sefroua, Rosa Grace, and My Princess Jess seem to be sitting on big efforts, and even a victory by a longer shot such such as Closeout, Lickety Lemon, or Alwajeeha would not qualify as a huge surprise.

Ariege is already familiar to Keeneland fans, having captured the Grade 2 Beaumont Stakes over Polytrack here in the spring. Trainer Bobby Frankel said afterward that Ariege probably would be just as effective on grass, if not more so, and he eventually set out to prove it by running her in August in a small stakes at Saratoga, which she won in impressive fashion. She then ran in the Sept. 6 Garden City, in which she finished a close third behind Backseat Rhythm.

"We took a tiny chip out of her ankle after the Beaumont," Frankel said. "She was coming back fairly quick in the Garden City, and she ran pretty good. This should be a real good race for her, if she likes the surface. It's an extremely good field, and I think the horse that gets the best trip is going to win. I envision our filly laying just off the pace and making one run."

Trip-wise, Ariege shouldn't have much of an excuse in the 1 1/8-mile QE II, considering she will start from the favorable inside post when ridden by Alan Garcia, arguably the hottest jockey in North America in recent months.

"I'll let the jock do what he wants," Frankel said. "He's a pretty cool rider."

Another QE II filly exiting the Garden City is My Princess Jess, a three-time stakes winner who finished just a length behind Ariege in fourth. Trainer Barclay Tagg, who won the QEoII last year with Bit of Whimsy, said he is not overly concerned with My Princess Jess having been assigned to the opposite end of the starting gate in post 11.

"If it works out where she can get position and wait long enough to make that one short run she makes, she could be pretty formidable," Tagg said.

The early pacesetter in the QE II could be Alwajeeha, who was a close second to My Princess Jess two starts back in the Grade 2 Lake George at Saratoga. After Alwajeeha, the closest pursuers could be Ariege, Sefroua, Storm Mesa, and My Princess Jess, while the rest tend to do their running from midpack or even farther behind, including Backseat Rhythm, Magical Fantasy, and Closeout.

Storm Mesa has put together a noteworthy campaign for trainer Bret Calhoun. Her March maiden win at Fair Grounds began a five-race run that culminated with a victory in the Grade 2 San Clemente at Del Mar in July. Her streak came to an end in the Del Mar Oaks, and she comes into the QE II off an eight-week freshening.

The QE II occasionally has produced a starter for the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf, but with the races just 13 days apart and with shipping cross-country to Santa Anita required, that may not happen this year.

The QE II is carded as the ninth race on a card that also includes the Grade 3 Perryville Stakes (race 7). Another spectacular day of weather is forecast for Saturday, when first post is 1:10 p.m. Eastern.



On the surface

No one is quite sure how the new Pro-Ride synthetic surface will affect this year's Breeders' Cup, but, 10 days into the Oak Tree meet, some answers are starting to emerge. It appears that Pro-Ride is a lot like its synthetic cousins, Tapeta, Polytrack and Cushion Track. It has produced formful racing, is not kind to front-runners and the inside may not be the best place to be.

Through Oct. 5, 68 races had been run on the Pro-Ride surface and 21 of them have been won by the betting favorite. That's among the good news coming out of Santa Anita. Racing at Oak Tree has been far from an indecipherable mess. The favorite is winning at a rate of 30.9 percent, which is more or less than national average around the country no matter the surface. Old-fashioned handicapping will still work a lot better than throwing a dart at the pages of your Daily Racing Form.

It seems that just about all synthetic tracks make things difficult for early speed horses and, so far, Pro-Ride is no exception. There have been only 9 wire-to-wire winners so far on the main track at Oak Tree, which comes out to a 13 percent winning rate. By comparison, I did a survey of more than 1,300 races run around the country on traditional dirt tracks for my book "Betting Synthetic Surfaces: Conquering Racing's Newest Frontier" and found that 30 percent of those races were won in front-running fashion.

Closers are faring the best at Santa Anita. Forty of the 68 races (59%) were won by horses who were fourth or worse at the first call. Nineteen of the races were won by horses who were second or third at the first call.

The way Santa Anita has been playing is good news for Curlin and bad news for Big Brown. Curlin comes from off the pace, while Big Brown does his best running when sent right to the lead.

It may be too early to tell, but it appears that inside posts are not the place to be. Horses breaking from Post 1 are 2-for-44 so far in sprints at Santa Anita. Horses breaking from Post 2 are also 2-for-44. Post 1 is showing a respectable 4-for-24 record on routes, but Post 2 is 0-for-24. Combined, Posts 1 and 2 have accounted for only 4.4% of the winners so far at Santa Anita.

The hottest Pro-Ride sire so far is Unusual Heat. He has sired four different winners over Pro-Ride. Tiznow is next with three Pro-Ride winners, including Goodwood winner Well Armed and Tizzy's Tune, the winner of the Pine Tree Lane Stakes.

Smart Strike, the sire of Curlin, has yet to have a Pro-Ride winner, but, elsewhere, his progeny have done well on synthetic surfaces. Square Eddie, won the Grade I Lane's End Breeders' Futurity last Saturday on a Polytrack surface at Keeneland. It was the second career start on a synthetic track for the son of Smart Strike. That same afternoon, a 4-year-old son of Smart Strike named Storm the Castle, won an allowance race on Woodbine's Polytrack surface. Still another son of Smart Strike, a sprinter named Silver Sword, has emerged as a synthetic specialist. After winning two straight over the Tapeta surface at Presque Isle Downs, he finished second on Polytrack at Turfway in the Grade III Kentucky Cup Sprint.

The recent success of Smart Strike offspring on synthetic tracks is no surprise. In data compiled by Jerry Brown of Thoro-Graph, through Dec. 18, 2007, sons and daughters of Smart Strike were winning nearly 16% of the their starts on synthetic tracks, which is among the better percentages of any sire.

Curlin may be the last horse in this year's Breeders' Cup that will be hindered by Pro-Ride.

Passing the Cup
The decision to take the 2010 Breeders' Cup to Churchill Downs was a good one. Not only was Churchill's turn due, but also it's a great facility that can handle a huge crowd and it's part of a city that gets truly excited about horse racing. With Santa Anita and Churchill now in line to host the 2008, 2009 and 2010 Breeders' Cups, Belmont Park is the logical choice for 2011. The Breeders' Cup has made no secret of its desire to use large facilities to host the event, and Santa Anita, Churchill and Belmont certainly qualify in that area.

But the Breeders' Cup shouldn't totally forget about some of the country's mid-level, mid-sized tracks like Monmouth Park. Different is good and no one wants to keep returning to the same three places year after year. Monmouth, Arlington and Lone Star all did terrific jobs when they hosted the Breeders' Cup and gave the event the treatment and respect it deserves, which hasn't always happened elsewhere. Let's hope those tracks still get the occasional shot to host the Breeders' Cup and that Del Mar is also part of the Cup's future.


More Horse Racing Headlines

Curlin wins Gold Cup, tops $10 million in winnings


Breeders' Cup Challenge

BREEDERS' CUP CHALLENGE
Full Coverage | About BC Challenge

 

 

The Breeders' Cup Challenge

The Breeders' Cup Challenge series is highlighted by its "Win and You're In" provision, with the winner of each race automatically qualifying for the corresponding divisional race in the $25 million Breeders' Cup World Championships on October 24 and 25.

 

Oct. 9
Race Track Division  
JP Morgan Chase Jessamine S. Keeneland Juv. Fillies Turf  
 


 

The Breeders' Cup World Championships

The Breeders' Cup World Championships year-end races are recognized as one of the ultimate tests of a Thoroughbred's talent and ability, showcasing horse racing at the highest levels of international competition.


 

Breeders' Cup World Championships Schedule

Oct. 24 (ESPN2)
Race Track Division  
Sentient Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint Oak Tree F&M Sprint  
Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Gr.I) Oak Tree F&M Turf  
Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (Gr.I) Oak Tree Juvenile Fillies  
Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf Oak Tree Juv. Fillies Turf  
Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (Gr.I) Oak Tree Ladies' Classic  

Oct. 25 (ABC and ESPN)
Race Track Division  
Breeders' Cup Classic (Gr.I) Oak Tree Classic  
Breeders' Cup Marathon Oak Tree Marathon  
Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile Oak Tree Dirt Mile  
Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile (Gr.I) Oak Tree Juvenile  
Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Oak Tree Juvenile Turf  
Breeders' Cup Mile (Gr.I) Oak Tree Mile  
Sentient Breeders' Cup Sprint (Gr.I) Oak Tree Sprint  
Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Turf (Gr.I) Oak Tree Turf  
Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint Oak Tree Turf Sprint

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