Wrapped around a big Saturday of college football are a number of other important contests on the wagering docket. Among the monster matchups is Oklahoma State visiting Missouri in a battle of unbeaten Big 12 teams. The Big 10 has two big games with Michigan State playing at unbeaten Northwestern in afternoon action and Penn State making the journey to Madison to take on Wisconsin at night. No matter who starts at quarterback for either team, USC is large favorite over Arizona State. All lines shown are from Sportsbook.com.

Arizona State (+28, 47) at USC 3:30E   ABC

The Arizona State running game continues to be a conundrum, averaging 85.4 yards per game. With Keegan Herring having season long hamstring problems, no other running back has emerged. What further complicates this is the offensive line lacks the number of drive blockers necessary to push opponents around. This was the case again in California loss, as the Sun Devils were one dimensional, relying strictly on passing attack. Quarterback Rudy Carpenter is still having success throwing the ball around the gridiron for almost 270 yards a game, but has been listed as doubtful for this contest. The defense has been a disappointment, not manufacturing sacks or turnovers. Arizona State is 0-9 ATS in the second of back-to-back road encounters.

Pete Carroll’s squad reacted positively at home, making Oregon appear otiose in 44-10 victory. Despite how domineering USC can be, the air of invincibility is dissipating like the ozone layer. Teams are starting to game plan ways to attack, rather than react to the Trojans. Not all will be successful, but opposing coaches are selling teams on the fact, USC might not take them seriously and go after them accordingly. To alleviate this, Carroll’s has to set the tone on both sides of the ball like his team did against the Ducks. Don’t recklessly abandon lane coverage on running plays and linebackers must not always seek to make plays for negative yardage. A one yard gain by opposing team is not bad defense. The offensive line has to work cohesively, as they will face increasingly more blitzes until they show they can contain them. USC is 13-3 ATS in home games after a win by 28 or more points.

Arizona State is 2-12 ATS as a road pooch if foe is off a straight up win. Prior to last season, the Sun Devils had not won on the California Pac-10 road for 6 years and are 2-14 and 3-12-1 ATS in these matchups since 2000. USC is 9-1 and 7-3 ATS versus Arizona State. Additionally, the Men of Troy are 15-5 ATS at The Coliseum after a cover as a double digit favorite

Forecaster – USC covers
Power Line – USC by 28
Outplay Factor – USC by 29

Michigan State (-1.5, 47) at Northwestern 3:30 ABC

One game receiving little acclaim this college football Saturday is a clash between two other ranked teams (USA Today Poll) in the Big 10. Michigan State’s five-game win streak has propelled the Spartans into the rankings for the first time in nearly three years. The Spartans’ streak appeared to be in jeopardy last Saturday before the defense stepped up with a key fourth-down stop in the fourth quarter to help preserve a 16-13 victory over Iowa. Led by a good offensive line and running back Javon Ringer, Michigan State averages 184.4 yards per game on the ground, with its tough-guy brand of football. Sparty will need to crank up the ground game after rushing for only 91 yards last week, being 15-32 ATS after gaining 100 or less rushing yards.

Oklahoma State (+14, 78) at Missouri 8:00E ESPN2

Oklahoma State will have their first true road game of the season, traveling to Columbia, MO, to face Chase Daniel and the talented Tigers. The Cowboys played Washington State in Seattle in a stadium that favored the Cougars, just not one before real full-throated screaming fans. Oklahoma State is an offensive juggernaut, ranked sixth in the country at 530.2 yards per game, led by QB Zak Robinson. The Cowboys average over 315 yards on the ground and Robinson compliments that with being a good passer, with receivers lacking brand name recognition, with real skills. Oklahoma State can score points like the number of windmills on T. Boone Pickens farm. The Okie State defense struggles to be average and the fault of this year’s group is inability to rush the passer, which could spell LOSS against Missouri. The Cowboys are 4-8 ATS as away underdogs under coach Mike Gundy.

Missouri nailed Nebraska 52-17, winning in Lincoln for the first time in 30 years. Chase Daniel is such a special offensive player, with unique abilities to process information quickly and make correct decisions time after time. Daniel is not doing it alone, with receivers like Jeremy Maclin running wild in opposing defensive backfield’s and Chase Coffman being able to find vacancies in clear-out areas. The Tigers have defensive inadequacies and they can viewed both ways. Option football spreads them out, giving opponents lanes to run and the 20+ yards passes are frequently more available than one would expect. Missouri is .500 against the spread at Memorial Stadium as a Big 12 home favorite since 2003.

These teams have not met in the last two years with the Big 12 rotating schedule, yet no reason to believe these teams won’t surpass the 69-point total they scored in 2005. Oklahoma State is 11-25 ATS the last nine years as an away dog and 12-22-1 against the number if the are on the conference road. Missouri is 8-3 SU and ATS versus the Cowboys, however is 5-9 ATS in Big 12 home games.

It’s hard to think such a matchup would be on the under-card in any conference; however that is the case this weekend in the Big 12. With the total at this level, big numbers do matter for both these teams. Missouri is 9-2 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 63 over the last two seasons and Okie State is perfect 12-0 ATS after scoring 50 points or more last game.

Forecaster – Oklahoma State covers
Power Line – Missouri by 15
Outplay Factor – Missouri by 15

Penn State (-6, 47) at Wisconsin 8:00E ABC

Veteran players are usually the best recipe for success a football program. The Penn State roster is littered with seniors, who have been through it all in their time at State College and have the mental makeup to succeed even when the road starts to get bumpy. After last week’s win at Purdue, the stakes and the opposition become more difficult at Wisconsin. The Nittany Lions are only 4-13 ATS the last three seasons in the Big 10 and will depend on senior signal caller Daryll Clark to lead them. Clark has been masterful in throwing short and deep to receivers who have been around the program for years. Evan Royster has stepped forward as a running back in the Penn State tradition, quick to the hole, powerful, with great balance.

Wisconsin’s “Murder’s Row” Big 10 schedule continues off Michigan and Ohio State losses. For the second week in a row, the Badgers couldn’t hold fourth quarter lead. Wisconsin’s offense becomes stagnant in the red zone unless they find tight ends Travis Beckum and Garrett Graham. Teams have put eight men in the box, daring Allan Evridge to throw to run of the mill wide receivers and gang up on running back P.J. Hill. When the tight ends are healthy, this gives offense several more options to score touchdowns instead of settling for field goal attempts. The Wisco offensive line is massive and not especially friendly and will try to control the line of scrimmage since they are 19-7 ATS when they rush for 4.5 to 5 yards per attempt.

This is a second prime time telecast for Wisconsin and the crowd will surely to juiced (literally). The Badgers are 18-7 ATS after two or more consecutive straight up losses and 13-4 ATS versus rushing teams averaging 230 or more rushing yards a game. It’s never a wise choice to mess with a wounded and angry badger and the Nittany Lions go into the Badgers nest with a 1-10 ATS record in road games after allowing six points or less last game.

The Badgers are 8-5 and 7-4 ATS all-time vs. Penn State, with the home team perfect 4-0 straight up and ATS in recent get-togethers. The favorite in this confrontation has covered five in a row and seven of nine. Points have been scarce when these two meet, with average score being a total of 37.

Forecaster – Wisconsin covers
Power Line – Pick
Outplay Factor – Penn State by 5